Home Can AI see? AI Beach Scene Logic Test - Quads
by Will Mayall, May 13, 2023
Here's a little logic test based on a recent event where two sets of identical twins where born naturally as part of quadruplets.
I mentioned to my friend that the quadruplets had both genders and they asked how many of each. That's not a surprise since logic is tougher for humans than it seems. My friend quickly corrected themselves but it is indicative of how humans easily make mistakes that might seem dumb. They are not dumb. They are just human.
On the other hand, here's my conversation with ChatGPT — which is surprisingly deep:
WM: If two sets of identical twins had both genders, how many are boys and how many are girls? Why?
ChatGPT-4: If you have two sets of identical twins and each set includes both genders, this would be impossible, as identical twins are always of the same gender. Identical twins occur when a single fertilized egg splits into two, leading to two babies who share the same genetic material. Therefore, they are always either both male or both female.
However, if you're referring to two sets of fraternal (non-identical) twins, each set could have one boy and one girl. Fraternal twins are the result of two separate eggs being fertilized by two different sperm. Each baby is genetically distinct and can be of either gender. In this case, you would have 2 boys and 2 girls.
WM: What if the twins were part of quadruplets?
ChatGPT-4: If you have two sets of identical twins that are part of a set of quadruplets, there are two possibilities:
1. All four are of the same gender: This would occur if two fertilized eggs of the same gender, one male and one female, each split into two, creating two sets of identical twins. For example, you could have four boys or four girls.
2. Two are one gender, and the other two are the other gender: This would occur if one male fertilized egg and one female fertilized egg each split into two, creating one set of identical male twins and one set of identical female twins. In this case, you would have two boys and two girls.
Remember, these scenarios are all based on the premise of having two sets of identical twins within the quadruplets, which is a relatively rare occurrence.
WM: How rare is it?
ChatGPT-4: The chances of having identical twins is about 3 in 1,000, while the chances of having quadruplets is about 1 in 700,000. However, the chances of having two sets of identical twins within a set of quadruplets is even rarer, though exact statistics are hard to come by.
One of the reasons it's difficult to determine the exact odds is that it can depend on various factors, including genetics, fertility treatments, and random chance. Additionally, since these occurrences are so rare, there are fewer data points to use in calculating the odds.
While it's clear that having two sets of identical twins within a set of quadruplets is extremely rare, it's difficult to give a precise probability. It's important to note that advancements in reproductive technologies, such as in vitro fertilization (IVF), can increase the likelihood of multiple births, including quadruplets and higher-order multiples.
WM: The babies were conceived naturally.
ChatGPT-4: Having quadruplets naturally is extremely rare. The chances are approximately 1 in 700,000. The odds of having two sets of identical twins within a set of naturally conceived quadruplets would be even more uncommon.
The reason for this rarity is related to how identical twins form. Identical twins occur when a single egg is fertilized to form one zygote (thus, monozygotic) which then divides into two separate embryos. Having this happen twice simultaneously within the same pregnancy is extraordinarily rare.
While specific odds are difficult to provide due to the rarity of this occurrence, it's safe to say that naturally occurring quadruplets where both pairs are identical twins would be a significant statistical rarity.
WM: Can you provide an estimate?
ChatGPT-4: Given that the chance of having any set of identical twins is roughly 1 in 250 pregnancies, and assuming these events are independent (which might not be exactly true in real life), the chance of having two sets of identical twins in the same pregnancy (which would imply quadruplets) would be (1/250) * (1/250), or 1 in 62,500.
Now, if we take into account that the chance of having quadruplets naturally is around 1 in 700,000, and we assume that all quadruplet births have an equal chance of all the various combinations of twins and non-twins, then the chance of having naturally conceived quadruplets with two sets of identical twins would be 1 in several tens of millions.
However, this is a rough estimate and the actual odds could be different. There are many factors that can influence the chances of multiple births, including genetics, age, fertility treatments, and others. Furthermore, multiple births are complex events and the probabilities might not multiply in the straightforward way implied here.